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Thread: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

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    Default Observing, cloudy weather and global warming



    I have noticed an increase in cloudy skies and wetter weather in the NY area over the past few years, reducing the number of clear sky observing nights. I have seen some similar comments from others in different locations on the forum. I have a hypothesis that the increase in cloudy, wetter weather is due to increased humidity in the atmosphere due to the melting of polar ice. While this idea seems plausible, I'm not sure if it really makes sense. Any thoughts on this?
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    I suppose one approach to answer the question would be to do some research on humidity data over the past year or two across a region (or across the globe) and compare to corresponding data for an earlier time period. Even that wouldn't prove the increased humidity was due to the melting of polar ice, but it would be a good start.
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    Yea, its just a trend.

    I don't think this thread will end well to be honest.
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by UlteriorModem View Post
    Yea, its just a trend.

    I don't think this thread will end well to be honest.
    Very interesting topic. I just read something on the Sun going into a Minimum for solar activity that is not tied to the 11 year sunspot activity but is more like what happened in the little Ice age in the 1600 and 1700's If this indeed turns out to be true and solar output declines by 5 to 10% then the climate might change again. Yes there is a lot of evidence to support global warming due to increases in Carbon Dioxide (Look at Venus) to see the proof. Venus temperature if it had an earth atmosphere would be more like 130 at the equator and temperate 40 degrees latitude and higher. Warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor so the cloudiness and humidity number will go up. Anyway the thread might not end up well but it does provoke many thoughts on what if......

    David
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by UlteriorModem View Post
    Yea, its just a trend.
    Well, that's the question. Has there been a permanent shift in the equilibrium between levels of liquid water and water vapor in the air, or is this just a temporary (or more regional) change in weather conditions? The former would be more ominous than the latter for future observing conditions.
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by dagadget View Post
    Very interesting topic. I just read something on the Sun going into a Minimum for solar activity that is not tied to the 11 year sunspot activity but is more like what happened in the little Ice age in the 1600 and 1700's If this indeed turns out to be true and solar output declines by 5 to 10% then the climate might change again. Yes there is a lot of evidence to support global warming due to increases in Carbon Dioxide (Look at Venus) to see the proof. Venus temperature if it had an earth atmosphere would be more like 130 at the equator and temperate 40 degrees latitude and higher. Warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor so the cloudiness and humidity number will go up. Anyway the thread might not end up well but it does provoke many thoughts on what if......

    David
    https://astronomynow.com/2015/07/17/...e-age-by-2030/ Possible little ice age by 2030 I found the article again.
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    Thanks for the link to an interesting article. It helps to put the original question into a larger perspective. The article raises the question of how strong a correlation exists between the sun's solar activity (and changes in its magnetic field) and weather patterns on earth. How strong is the model being presented for predicting weather changes on earth? They only cite one period of reduced solar activity with colder temperatures on earth. As is the answer to many questions, time will tell. My original question still stands, however: is the proportion of water vapor in the atmosphere increasing and will that increase be long lived (even if other mitigating factors influence our weather)?
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by stargazer55 View Post
    Thanks for the link to an interesting article. It helps to put the original question into a larger perspective. The article raises the question of how strong a correlation exists between the sun's solar activity (and changes in its magnetic field) and weather patterns on earth. How strong is the model being presented for predicting weather changes on earth? They only cite one period of reduced solar activity with colder temperatures on earth. As is the answer to many questions, time will tell. My original question still stands, however: is the proportion of water vapor in the atmosphere increasing and will that increase be long lived (even if other mitigating factors influence our weather)?
    Well warmer air holds more water vapor and warmer oceans evaporate faster than cold ones. As long as the historical run of warmer and warmer temperatures keeps on then the answer has to be yes. The only thing that will change this trend would be a reduction of temperatures. Manmade reduction or a solar one. A man made one would be to place a block shield between the earth and sun sort of like a solar eclipse in miniature 5% reduction would do the trick. We can't do that yet. The other is the sun's output and if it does go into a lower output period then the increases in water vapor and temperatures would drop. Man is causing some of the problem but the sun is a lot bigger player than man is.....
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    It is summer too so there is that
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    Default Re: Observing, cloudy weather and global warming

    Given the number of new members to the forum, I'd have to say the increase in astronomers is directly responsible for the bad weather.
    Dave Hunt

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