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  1. #1
    alberto91's Avatar
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    Default Alpha centauri could host the closest Earth-like planet

    I think that Alpha centauri could host the closest Earth-like planet.

    A study shows that 22% of G and K-type stars could have Earth-like planets orbiting in the habitable zone.

    There are 9 Sun-like stars within 25 light-years. If we make the calculation, two of those stars could have an Earth-like planet.

    One of those two exoplanets could be Tau Ceti e. Which exoplanet could be the other one?

    7 out of the 9 closest Sun-like stars have low metallicity. The only two stars with high metallicity are Alpha Centauri A and Delta Pavonis, but this star is suspected to be variable.

    What do you guys think?


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    Default Re: Alpha centauri could host the closest Earth-like planet

    This number is based on a completely wrong understanding of chance theory.

    The chance of 22% that each star G or K has an earth like planet is independent for each star. That means in laymans terms: each star has this 22% chance, no matter what its neighbours are doing. So the chance that Alpha centuri has an earth like planet is 22%. An then we have to take into account that even this 22% figure is an estimate.

    Reading the article where this 22% chance is refenced one can see that even he authors themselves say that this is based on extrapolations (i.e. inaccurate or even speculative, extrapolations are the poison of statistics, yet everyone likes to do them if they can prove a point by it :-) ).

    There is no reference to the impact the youtube movie starts with in the given articles. One article models the effects of a HYPOTHETICAL impact, that is all.....

    Pure youtube sensationalism and interpretations by someone who does not understand what he is talking about.
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